Last night on the show we talked about how the Mooseheads lack of finish was a concern during some of out games this season. Loyal listener Marcus came on the show with some analytics that point towards where we should maybe be looking at correcting this problem. Here is his email
We’ve all been talking about the Mooseheads lack of finishing for a while now; they pile up shots but can’t convert. I have a theory from the admittedly limited sample of games I’ve watched: the Mooseheads defensemen shoot too much. I dove into the numbers a bit to see if my theory made any sense. I looked at all the regular season shooting and goal data for the top four teams in the league; the true contenders.
A summary of observations:
1. Mooseheads have most goals scored by defense among top teams
2. Among top teams, Mooseheads have highest percentage of goals by defense at 17% (lowest percentage of goals by forwards at 83%)
3. Among top teams, Mooseheads have highest percent of shots on goal by defense at 32% (lowest percent of shots on goal by forwards at 68%)
4. All the top teams were in the same range of season long shooting percentage: ROU 11%, DRU 13%, HAL 12%, BAC 13%
5. All the top teams DSh% is less than half of their FSh%
6. 61% of HAL shots taken by forwards were classified as dangerous; the highest percent among top teams; DRU second at 60% (this, I think, furthers my point because Halifax forwards are generating dangerous shots at a very high rate)
WHAT IF the Mooseheads Defense had a lower % of the teams SOG:
1. Assume Mooseheads forwards take 75% of team’s shots on goal; the same as ROU and DRU for the regular season
2. Assume Mooseheads take same number of shots during the season
3. Round hypothetical shots to nearest whole number
4. Hypothetical shot totals are now 1799 for forwards and 600 for defense
5. Assume Mooseheads forward and defense Sh% remains the same
6. Based on this hypothetical, we could expect the Moosheads forwards to score 270 goals (+22) and defense to score 42 goals (-8) for 312 total (+14)
7. Hypothetical goal total would put them in third among top teams but right behind ROU (316) 14 goals might not sound like much but maybe that helps you avoid going to a shootout with St John, helps you do better than squeaking by Gatineau, or maybe forces some close games to OT for a few extra points over the course of the season.
I think this is a real area of concern despite the extremely high quality of defensemen on the Mooseheads. If the Mooseheads find a way to allow their forwards to generate more of their total shots I think they could take another step in the playoffs. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.
Cheers, Marcus PS – Drummondville actually scares me as an opponent more than Rouyn simply because of their ability to generate dangerous shots and goals.